Then there is "radiation hormesis", a hypothesis, that the radiation is good for you. Not "because of such and such specific response, radiation is good for you" - just a hypothesis that it is
Is this a fair description of the history and science behind hormesis?
See for yourself:
Is it more like some new outcome like 'ohh, there's new method by which the cell would know the radiation doses at low near background level, even for alpha particles a single of which does giant damage! Some new exciting physics discovered - the quantum probability can be measured before event happens!. That got to be useful for something, maybe for defence response. Ohh, there is the defence response, and its so strong.... I wonder if low doses of radiation are good for you?'
Or is it more like like 'okay, suppose the radiation is good fo...
Nutrition is a case where we have to try to make the best possible use of the data we have no matter how terrible, because we have to eat something now to sustain us while we plan and conduct more experiments.
I want to apply Bayes theorem to make rational health decisions from relatively weak data. I am generally wondering how one can synthesize historical human experiences with incomplete scientific data, in order to make risk-adverse and healthy decisions about human nutrition given limited research.
Example question/hypothesis: Does gluten cause health problems (ie exhibit chronic toxicity) in non-coeliac humans? Is there enough evidence to suggest that avoiding gluten might be a prudent risk-adverse decision for non-coeliacs?
We have some (mostly in vitro) scientific data suggesting that gluten may cause health problems in non-coeliac humans (such as these articles http://evolvify.com/the-case-against-gluten-medical-journal-references/). Let's say for the sake of arguing, that I can somehow convert these studies into a non-unity likelihood ratio for gluten toxicity in humans (although suggestions are welcome here too).
However, we also have prior information that a population of humans has been consuming gluten containing foods for at least 10,000 years, without any blatantly obvious toxic effects. Is there some way to convert this observation (and observations like this) into a prior probability distribution?