Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

gwern

In this essay I argue the following:

Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but not non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chip fabs.

Full essay: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law

In this essay I argue the following:

Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but not non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chip fabs.

Full essay: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law

Are you actually suggesting that people attack chip fab plants in attempt to prevent WBE from occurring before de novo AGI?

I think if you were successful, you'd be more likely to prevent either from occurring than to prevent WBE from occurring first. It takes a whole lot of unfounded technological optimism to estimate that friendly de novo AGI is simple enough that an action like this would make it occur first, when we don't even know what the obstacles really are.

Are you actually suggesting that people attack chip fab plants in attempt to prevent WBE from occurring before de novo AGI?

Maybe. What do your probability estimates and expected value calculations say?

It takes a whole lot of unfounded technological optimism to estimate that friendly de novo AGI is simple enough that an action like this would make it occur first

It would take a lot of optimism. Good thing I never suggested that.

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Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

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Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

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