In this essay I argue the following:
Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but not non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chip fabs.
Full essay: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law
Maybe. What do your probability estimates and expected value calculations say?
It would take a lot of optimism. Good thing I never suggested that.
I agree with your assessment that this would effectively delay WBE, and therefore increase the chances of it occurring last but I can't even guess at how likely that is to actually be effective without at least a rough estimate of how long it will take to develop de novo AGI.
Your idea is very interesting, but I'll admit I had a strong negative emotional reaction. It's hard for me to imagine any situation under which I would sit down and do some calculations, check them over a few tim... (read more)