Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

gwern

In this essay I argue the following:

Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but not non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chip fabs.

Full essay: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law

In this essay I argue the following:

Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but not non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chip fabs.

Full essay: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law

Norwegian construction reports (with their long experience in underground construction) for power stations and waste treatment plants indicate that underground construction premiums are more like 1.25x and may even save money in the long run. These hardenings, however, are not robust against nuclear or bunker-busting bombs, which require overburdens up to 2000 feet.

Ok, but what kind of actor are you envisioning as wanting to blow up the fabs? Nukes and bunker-busters seems to me to indicate nation-states, which - if genuinely convinced of the dangers of Moore's Law - have all kinds of other options available to them, like regulation. (Just look at what they've done to nuclear power plants...) If you decided to go terrorist and had access to a nuke, would a chip fab really be your highest-priority target?

The usual argument made against the strategy of regulation is that the economic pressures would drive production underground, possibly literally, frustrating any attempt at regulation or enforcement.

My point is that other economic pressures force consolidation into a few efficient and extremely expensive & vulnerable facilities, which can be affected by ordinary military mechanisms - hence, regulation + military-level enforcement may well work in contrast to the usual pessimism.

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Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

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Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It

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