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Mitchell_Porter comments on Is causal decision theory plus self-modification enough? - Less Wrong
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What confuses me here is that a causal model of reality would still tell it that being a one-boxer now will maximize the payoff now, if it examines possible worlds in the right way. It seems to come down to cognitive contingencies - whether its heuristics manage to generate this observation, without it then being countered by a "can't-change-the-past" heuristic.
I may need to examine the decision-theory literature to see what I can reasonably call a "CDT agent", especially Gibbard & Harper, where the distinction with evidential decision theory is apparently defined.
That's the main difference between decision theories like CDT, TDT and UDT.
I think it's the only difference between CDT and TDT: TDT gets a semi-correct causal graph, CDT doesn't. (Only semi-correct because the way Eliezer deals with Platonic nodes, i.e. straightforward Bayesian updating, doesn't seem likely to work in general. This is where UDT seems better than TDT.)