michaelsullivan comments on Fallacies as weak Bayesian evidence - Less Wrong

59 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 18 March 2012 03:53AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (41)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: michaelsullivan 14 March 2012 01:23:30PM 11 points [-]

The circular argument about electrons sounds like something a poor science teacher or textbook writer would say. One who didn't understand much about physics or chemistry but was good enough at guessing the teacher's password to acquire a credential.

It glosses over all the physics and chemistry that went into specifying what bits of thing-space are clumped into the identifier "electron", and why physicists who searched for them believed that items in that thing space would leave certain kinds of tracks in a cloud chamber under various conditions. There was a lot of evidence based on many real experiments about electricity that led them to the implicit conditional probability estimates which make that inference legitimate.

The argument itself provides no evidence whatsoever, and encountering sentences like that in science literature is possibly the most frustrating thing about learning settled science to an aspiring rationalist. It simply assumes (and hides!) the science we are supposed to learn, and thus merely giving us another password to guess.

Comment author: matt 01 April 2012 10:15:02AM 0 points [-]

down voted: exaggeration - "no evidence whatsoever", "most frustrating thing".