Nisan comments on Fallacies as weak Bayesian evidence - Less Wrong

59 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 18 March 2012 03:53AM

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Comment author: Nisan 14 March 2012 03:31:36PM 1 point [-]

If our prior for A is very low, then that implies that our estimate of P(S|notA) must be also be high, given that we do in fact observe the bible

What? That's an argument for P(S|¬A∧S) being high, not an argument for P(S|¬A) being high.