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Danfly comments on Fallacies as weak Bayesian evidence - Less Wrong
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Isn't that exactly what the Hahn-Oaksford paper does? I doubt I'm as intelligent as most people on this site, but I was under the impression that this was all about using Bayesian methods to measure the probable "fallaciousness" of certain informal fallacies.
I think what happens is that informal and fallacious reasoning rapidly (exponentially or super exponentially in number of steps) diverges from making sense, so it's weight as evidence is typically extremely close to zero.