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XiXiDu comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong
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Thanks for the recap. It still doesn't answer my question, though:
This appears to be incorrect if the CDT knows that Omega always makes correct predictions
And this appears to be incorrect in all cases. The right decision depends on exact nature of the noise. If Omega makes the decision by analyzing the agent's psychological tests taken in childhood, then the agent should two-box. And if Omega makes a perfect simulation and then adds random noise, the agent should one-box.
Sorry, could you explain this in more detail?
Humans are time-inconsistent decision makers. Why would Omega choose to fill the boxes according to a certain point in configuration space rather than some average measure? Most of your life you would have two-boxed after all. Therefore if Omega was to predict whether you (space-time-worm) will take both boxes or not, when it meets you at an arbitrary point in configuration space, it might predict that you are going to two-box if you are not going to life for much longer in which time-period you are going to consistently choose to one-box.
ETA It doesn't really matter when a superintelligence will meet you. What matters is for how long a period you adopted which decision procedure, respectively were susceptible to what kind of exploitation. If you only changed your mind about a decision procedure for .01% of your life it might still worth to act on that acausally.