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orthonormal comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong
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I claim your variation doesn't address the hidden assumption that P(predict X | do X) is near unity, given that P(do X | predict X) is near unity.
But there's a stronger objection;
Why pick such a contentious example for a primer? People have cached thoughts about the classic version of the problem, and that's going to interfere with the point you're trying to make.
According to Wikipedia there are multiple classic formulations, some involving uncertainty and others involving certainty.