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twanvl comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong
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Can you explain this?
EDT is described as $V(A) = \sum_{j} P(O_j | A) U(O_j)$. If you have knowledge about the mechanisms behind the how the lesion causes smoking, that would change $P(A | O_j)$ and therefore also $P(O_j | A)$.
I don't see how knowledge how the lesion works would affect the probabilities when you don't know if you have lesion and the probability of having lesion.
Also:
You would still have priors for all of these things.
Even if you do, how is knowing that the lesion causes cancer going to change anything about P(smokes|gets cancer) ? The issue is that you need to do two equations, one for case when you do have lesion, and other for when you don't have lesion. The EDT just confuses those together.