Dmytry comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong

69 Post author: orthonormal 13 March 2012 11:31PM

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Comment author: twanvl 15 March 2012 11:55:21AM 0 points [-]

Also:

when you don't know if you have lesion and the probability of having lesion.

You would still have priors for all of these things.

Comment author: Dmytry 15 March 2012 12:07:15PM *  0 points [-]

Even if you do, how is knowing that the lesion causes cancer going to change anything about P(smokes|gets cancer) ? The issue is that you need to do two equations, one for case when you do have lesion, and other for when you don't have lesion. The EDT just confuses those together.