twanvl comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong
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As a person who (right now) thinks that EDT is a good idea, could you help enlighten me?
Wikipedia states that under EDT the action with the maximum value is chosen, where value is determined as
V(A) =sum{outcomes O} P(O|A) U(O). The agent can put in knowledge about how the universe works intoP(O|A), right?Now the smoking lesion problem. It can be formally written as something like this,
I think the tricky part is
P(smoking | lesion) > P(smoking | !lesion), because this puts a probability on something that the agent gets to decide. Since probabilities are about uncertainty, and the agent would be certain about its actions, this makes no sense.Is that the main problem with EDT?
Actually the known fact is more like
P(X smoking | X lesion), the probability of any agent with a lesion deciding to smoke. From this the agent will have to deriveP(me smoking | me lesion). If the agent is an avarage human being, then they would be equal. But if the agent is special because he uses some specific decision theory or utility function, he should only look at a smaller reference class. I think in this way you get quite close to TDT/UDT.