Nornagest comments on Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer - Less Wrong

69 Post author: orthonormal 13 March 2012 11:31PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (172)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Nornagest 16 March 2012 07:12:30AM *  1 point [-]

You cannot necessarily just decide to think of something random which would be required in order to be unpredictable.

Presented with this scenario, I'd come up with a scheme describing a table of as many different options as I could manage -- ideally a very large number, but the combinatorics would probably get unwieldy after a while -- and pull numbers from http://www.fourmilab.ch/hotbits/ to make a selection. I might still lose, but knowing (to some small p-value) that it's possible to predict radioactive decay would easily be worth $100.

Of course, that's the smartassed answer.

Comment author: Estarlio 16 March 2012 02:58:39PM -1 points [-]

Well the smartarse response is that Omega's just plugged himself in on the other end of your hotbits request =p