moridinamael comments on Real-life expected utility maximization [response to XiXiDu] - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Gabriel 12 March 2012 07:03PM

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Comment author: moridinamael 12 March 2012 11:08:25PM 5 points [-]

A long time ago I took a course in decision analysis. It was a very practical course aimed at engineers, and didn't really go into any of the theoretical aspects we are fond of talking about on LW. I find that when I get lost thinking about LW-style rationality I can always find my way again by remembering the basics I learned in this course. Critically, for the purposes of the course, a decision was defined as having discrete options.

Often the options were totally binary, as in "fund this project or do not fund this project," or "include this design feature or do not include this feature." Sometimes there were multiple possible courses of action, but the possible actions were always defined, and the act of the decision itself had to be clearly defined.

The question, "What should I do this week?" is not an appropriately formed question according to the framework I was trained to use. The question, "Should I go to New York this week, or not?" is well formed, and you can begin to think about this question.

No, turning it into a binary question obviously does not account for all the other infinite options you really have, and so it isn't Utility Maximization, it's just Making the Better Choice This Particular Time. And really, you don't have infinite options, just as an oil company can't actually decide it should open up a McDonald's instead of drilling a particular well. A huge range of options are so high-cost, low-probability or high-uncertainty as to be wisely neglected.

So, in your daily life, don't use "Utility Maximization," but do try to use basic decision theory. Like any tool, it improves your life within its range of practical applicability. Just don't expect magic.