There is no need to wish or strive for regulatory changes that may never happen: I've pointed out in the past that non-money prediction markets generally are pretty accurate and competitive with money prediction markets; so money does not seem to be a crucial factor. Just systematic tracking and judgment.
(Being able to profit may attract some people, like me, but the fear of loss may also serve as a potent deterrent to users.)
I have written at length about how I believe prediction markets helped me but I have been helped even more by the free active you-can-sign-up-right-now-and-start-using-it,-really,-right-now http://www.PredictionBook.com
I routinely use LW-related ideas and strategies in predicting, and I believe my calibration graph reflects genuine success at predicting.
I have several questions related to this:
If you visit any Less Wrong page for the first time in a cookies-free browsing mode, you'll see this message for new users:
Here are the worst violators I see on that about page:
And on the sequences page:
This seems obviously false to me.
These may not seem like cultish statements to you, but keep in mind that you are one of the ones who decided to stick around. The typical mind fallacy may be at work. Clearly there is some population that thinks Less Wrong seems cultish, as evidenced by Google's autocomplete, and these look like good candidates for things that makes them think this.
We can fix this stuff easily, since they're both wiki pages, but I thought they were examples worth discussing.
In general, I think we could stand more community effort being put into improving our about page, which you can do now here. It's not that visible to veteran users, but it is very visible to newcomers. Note that it looks as though you'll have to click the little "Force reload from wiki" button on the about page itself for your changes to be published.