michaelcurzi comments on How to avoid dying in a car crash - Less Wrong

75 Post author: michaelcurzi 17 March 2012 07:44PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (288)
Tags: safety death health driving strategy

Comments (288)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 17 March 2012 08:46:29PM 12 points [-]

Stop. Think about that for a second. I’ll convert it to the Imperial system for my fellow Americans: “in a [37.3 mph] speed limit area, the risk of involvement in a casualty crash doubles with each [3.1 mph] increase in travelling speed above [37.3 mph].” Remember that next time you drive a 'mere' 5 mph over the limit.

Could be that generally reckless drivers are more likely to exceed the speed limit.

Comment author: michaelcurzi 17 March 2012 09:02:15PM 21 points [-]

So if you find yourself exceeding the limit, that's evidence that you're a reckless driver, and you should adjust your behavior accordingly.

Comment author: JenniferRM 20 March 2012 05:15:06AM 6 points [-]

Meaning what precisely? Decision theorists, a gauntlet with significant real world consequences has been throw down before you! Do you accept the challenge?

King Solomon wants to sleep with another man's wife. However, he knows that uncharismatic leaders frequently sleep with other men's wives, and charismatic leaders almost never do. Furthermore, uncharismatic leaders are frequently overthrown, and charismatic leaders rarely are. On the other hand, sleeping with other men's wives does not cause leaders to be overthrown. Instead, high charisma decreases the chance that a leader will sleep with another man's wife and the chance that the leader will be overthrown separately. Not getting overthrown is more important to King Solomon than getting the chance to sleep with the other guy's wife.

Causal decision theory holds that King Solomon can go ahead and sleep with the other man's wife because it will not directly cause him to be overthrown. Timeless decision theory holds that he can sleep with the woman because it will not cause his overthrow in any timeless sense either. Conventional wisdom holds that Evidential decision theory would have him refrain from her, because updating on the fact that he slept with her would suggest a higher probability that he will get overthrown.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 20 March 2012 11:58:28AM 6 points [-]

I like the response, but I'm not sure how well it works in the real world, for either problem. All three decision theories would recommend that King Solomon avoid overthrow by working on his charisma, since his inclination to sleep with another man's wife is evidence for its lack. Similarly, if you notice that you regularly drive way over the speed limit, maybe you should ask yourself "am I being reckless?" and consider taking an advanced driving course.

Comment author: JenniferRM 20 March 2012 01:55:19PM 1 point [-]

Playing this out for didactic purposes, why would someone increase their charisma or decrease their recklessness? The standard line is that Gandhi wouldn't try to increase his murderousness... what's the difference?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 20 March 2012 03:01:26PM 2 points [-]

If someone is passionately committed to their recklessness, to the point of dying for it, or to having the charisma of a dead toad, to the point of being overthrown for it, none at all. The former is explicitly avowed by some ("live fast, die young!"), and there's no shortage of people on the Internet who pride themselves on being obnoxious and take validation from being excluded.

And then, some people would rather get things done, and there's not much of significance you can accomplish without being alive and getting other people to take you seriously.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit