110phil comments on How to avoid dying in a car crash - Less Wrong

75 Post author: michaelcurzi 17 March 2012 07:44PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (288)

Sort By: Leading

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: 110phil 19 March 2012 02:17:06AM 3 points [-]

"The Road and Traffic Authority of New South Wales claims that “speeding… is a factor in about 40 percent of road deaths.” Data from the NHTSA puts the number at 30%."

What does this mean, "is a factor"? If it means "at least one car was speeding," then it sounds like speeding might reduce the chance of a fatality. Suppose 40% of all drivers speed. Then, if speeding has no effect, the chance that neither driver is speeding is only 36%, which means speeding would be a factor in 64% of fatalities, not 40% or 30%.

Of course, I've made some assumptions here. The linked site doesn't tell us what percentage of drivers speed, and it doesn't say what "is a factor" means. So, the factoid, as presented, is meaningless.