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DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong
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Snape's plotting here is interesting, but I'm not sure what he is actually trying to accomplish.
Quick rundown of what we know:
So I suspect a few things:
Now, if we ascribe his love for Lily as his primary motivation (Which "Sunk Costs" seems to support) , his support of Hermione, and his plotting to restore the reputation of Slytherin makes sense. What I don't understand is why he needs to hide this from Dumbledore. Even if his motivations are counter to those of Dumbledore (I.E. He's actually evil), all of these actions would cement Dumbledore's trust in him. I can think of a few possible reasons:
None of these are particularly satisfying or convincing, hence why i'm throwing the question out there.
Edit: People have repeatedly pointed out that Snape's attachment to Lily was either broken or reduced by Harry's analysis of the situation, and that Snape's kiss in Sunk Costs was a reflection of that, and I can't help but agree.
I believe Snape's motivations are more personal than trying to help Slytherin House. He's remembering how he was bullied by James, and his conversation about the topic with Harry prompted him to devise this scheme to fight bullying today. He's basically looking for redemption, having perhaps abandoned his love for Lily after talking with Harry and also after the Interlude with the Confessor.
This explains why he's starting this scheme now, rather than as soon as he became Head of Slytherin.
He's hiding this from Dumbledore because Dumbledore explicitly acted against his plot: he tried to stop the SPHEW-bully fights, in the end by the drastic method of ordering Snape to disband them and publicly humiliate and punish Hermione. Dumbledore explained his actions and motivations several times to Harry.
Point, though wanting to curb bullying, and end the racism amounts to nearly the same thing as wanting to redeem Slytherin.
Not really. Bullying is House-neutral; Slytherin and Gryffindor both bully each other as well as random other students. Note the heavy non-Slytherin presence at the last bully battle, and note that James Potter was in Gryffindor. And Quirrelmort, who was (for the sake of argument) in Slytherin, spoke of how much he once hated bullies.
How do you reconcile the scheme being conducted by Snape with one of the main victims being Hermione? This scheme could plausibly end in her death or lifelong imprisonment in Azkaban (a slower death). He had previously tried to help Hermione in an embarrassing way (and doesn't she resemble Lily in being Muggle-born?).
I wasn't talking about the murder attempt story, and I don't believe Snape's behind it anyway (he's the most likely suspect after Quirrel, but he's not really very likely at all IMO). I meant Snape's scheme to stop bullying in Hogwarts - which is what Jello_Raptor posted about.
I would put Lucius up there as a suspect or accomplice: he loves his son, and was noticeably offended when he saw Hermione beat him in magic. Purebloods also have a history of thinking of muggleborns as not-people (see Harry and Draco talking about Luna on the train), so he wouldn't have any moral compunctions getting in the way of hurting Hermione. He was also at the school at the time, so he has almost as much opportunity as the rest of them.
And wouldn't that just be a perfect rationality lesson? Eliezer can talk about how Lucius is blinded by perceived threats to his beliefs, thereby putting his son and an innocent girl in danger.
Of course, I really hope that it's Quirrel instead, if only because it would be impossible to convict Lucius.
He hasn't been at school during the various times H&C appeared, that we know of.
(Edit: retracted: And Eliezer's Author's Notes have confirmed that Harry explanation in the latest chapter is correct (False Memory Charm to make Hermione suspect Draco, then months of obsession, then more FMCs about the duel and Obliviating Hermione regarding the original FMC.) )
Edited to add: See comment below; I probably misinterpreted the Author's Notes. Also, I admit it's possible Lucius has been in the school without us knowing explicitly every time, since he's on the board of governors.
Could you do me a favor and quote the exact line that made you think this?
Quoting A/N chapter 79:
Edited to add: I thought that referred to interpretation of "why did Hermione try to murder Draco? Why was she convinced Draco was plotting against her?"
But I see now that it refers to interpretations of the Wham Line specifically. So it more likely means interpretations of "how did Hermione try to murder Draco?" Or even, "what does the accusation that she tried to murder him mean? Did she really try? Or is this a combined Hermione-Draco plot to flush out whoever is manipulating her?"
I take it others adopt the second reading. It's apparently the intended one. I retract my claim.
Thanks for asking me to quote and so forcing me to reevaluate my evidence. Upvoted!
Prediction: Snape's plan will zig-zag in some unforeseen direction (possibly through using Harry as a catspaw by giving him the right info at the right time) so as to save Hermione. Snape knew that the Hermione + Draco friendship was unlikely to survive the scrutiny of Lord Malfoy, so as an ersatz Lily + Snape, he is going to try and help Hermione and Draco by bringing the issue to a head and then resolving it in some brilliant way that this comment space is too narrow to contain.
Estimated probability: ~35%
(I'd say lower probability, but Snape is the obvious villain right now based on what we know about him destroying the notes, so unless he really is the villain, it's a misdirect, and his plan does not involve Hermione getting wand broken/enhanced interrogation/eternal noogies/other undesirable outcome.)
Edit: Disregard this, it was a fun theory, but I think I'm wrong about Snape for reasons below.
Wait, how is this relevant? Destroying the notes is just about cleaning up his SPHEW-related tracks (due to his apparent embarrassment at being a soft touch w/r/t bullying) now that Hermione and her notes are under great scrutiny as possibly being related to her framing.
And in fact, I'd say the notes are evidence against. If Snape had been plotting this all along, one might expect the notes to have been destroyed before the incident is uncovered, say after Hermione left for the duel, since Snape would not be able to guarantee he'd be assigned to look for the notes, that he would be alone or unobserved in every way, etc. If you predict an investigation will find dangerous papers you no longer need, you don't wait until the investigation starts!
I don't see Snape's motives the same way. Here's why I think he's the obvious villain (if my above 'twist' is wrong :/):
We know he was behind the plot with SPHEW as the puppet master, and that it centered around Hermione. As a result of his involvement, the bullying situation escalated until Dumbledore had to end it. If not for Malfoy's involvement at the cafeteria, Hermione would have ended her anti-bullying crusade disgraced, embarrassed, and powerless. The fight with the 7th year had the potential to end things in this way with Hermione as well, but it did not due to sheer luck. It would be poor planning on Snape's part if he had wanted to help SPHEW in its fight. His presence at the last big fight is not evidence either way; he could have been there to bolster the slytherins or help SPHEW.
In any event, if we look at Snape's plotting in this light, there are now two people plotting against Hermione if H&C is not Snape. This does not make too much sense to me (from a who benefits standpoint) unless you consider Lucius as an option, but he loves Draco and would not plan something that might kill him.
Destroying the notes at the earliest opportunity is optimal, but the risk of being detected by Dumbledore OR Quirrell OR the Wards OR the Marauders' Map OR <competent time-turned investigator if the plan doesn't work> is significant if he tried to do so the night of the duel. His window of opportunity is not too large either, because Hermione would notice if they were destroyed too long before the duel. Perhaps Snape went ahead with his plan, confident in his ability as a Slytherin to maneuver the room full of shocked people into letting him search Hermione's room?
((Postscript: After I'm done typing all of this out, it occurs to me that I may have latched too strongly onto this theory and am now defending it because it's a pet theory and not because it's the best theory. I don't think that this is the case, but that's how pet theories feel 'from the inside' anyway. Bleah.))
Edit: Disregard due to reasons below.
I think it was pretty clear that he was there to help SPHEW. That makes sense given his memory charming of everyone involved and it was (very) heavily implied that he was helping them in other battles.
I notice I am confused....
(I reread the Dumbledore conversation speculating that Quirrell was helping SPHEW in previous fights, and that can only be Snape helping.)
He could have memory-charmed if he didn't want to be known as working against SPHEW, but it is more likely that he was helping.
Now I do not have a good theory for who H&C is.