wedrifid comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Oscar_Cunningham 17 March 2012 09:41AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 23 March 2012 05:41:46PM 2 points [-]

If you win, you made the right decision.

I will not argue about the definition of 'right decision', that is at least ambiguous. Yet when it comes to overconfidence in a given prediction that is a property of the comment itself and the information on which it was based upon. New information doesn't change it.