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hairyfigment comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong
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I suggest: (1) all Harry needs is time, (2) Dumbledore refuses to give it to him, (3) Harry offers Lucius an Unbreakable Vow.
In theory, Obliviations and False Memories can be broken, right? So what's Dumbledore's excuse for not insisting on a delay in punishment long enough to attempt to break the alleged tampering with Hermione's brain?
[ETA: actually, doesn't matter whether the spells are known breakable; Harry could experiment with counterspells or just hunt for the real villain. Either way, Harry will be confident that he can get the truth -- given time.]
It seems like Quirrell stands to take away three of Harry's supports - if Harry realizes that Dumbledore won't insist on even a delay in punishing Hermione to test whether she's actually innocent, he's hardly likely to ever trust Dumbledore ever again.
Meanwhile, it seems like the obvious "taboo tradeoff" for Harry to offer for Hermione is some kind of Unbreakable Vow for the Malfoys' benefit - especially since Lucius believes (sort of correctly!) that Harry is Voldemort. That would be fun storytelling, since an Unbreakable Vow for Draco's benefit also shows up in canon. Is there a more appropriate bribe Harry could offer than that?
And would Harry and Lucius actually come to an agreement in such a negotiation, or would Harry's maximum offer be less than Lucius' minimum offer? Since Lucius has Hermione as hostage, it would be tricky, though not impossible, for Harry to simply threaten the Malfoys into handing Hermione over.
But suppose Harry can't make a deal with Lucius, can't contact Quirrell in time, and can't get Dumbledore to take effective action - then what is Harry's best option at this point if he absolutely refuses to let Hermione be turned into a house-elf (or whatever)? Is Harry's best solo option to get to Azkaban on his own and lead out a Dementor army? (I didn't say good, just best...)
Is there a save-Hermione option that would make sense to us that Harry is unlikely to consider?
It seems more natural to have Hermione take an Unbreakable Vow to seek vengeance on Narcissa's killer (ideally with qualifying clauses). This, in principle, would seem attractive to Lucius even or especially if he can't reconsider his theory about Dumbledore (or any of his other beliefs). And I vaguely feel Lucius would worry less about Hermione tricking him than if Harry/Voldemort took the Vow. In any case, this approach to vengeance seems directly related to the trade Lucius publicly declared he would make in chapter 80.
This suggestion might work better coming from Draco's snake-Patronus. They might even get away with adding some lawyer's conditions then. Sadly, it sounds like Harry couldn't signal Draco unobtrusively unless he slips away somehow (or, I guess, casts Expecto Patronum into his Invisibility Cloak while muffling the sound). But the time-turner could work here. I was going to say that even a brief disappearance might make L. Malfoy suspicious. But if LM sees him as Voldemort, that would make faking a Patronus intuitively unlikely.