I plan to put all the acknowledgments and references in the last part; but I should mention now that I first read about the self-fulfilling prophecy problem on the decision-theory mailing list, in a post by Vladimir Slepnev. (EDIT: He passes on the credit to Benja Fallenstein in this LW comment.)

Other people have used "naive decision theory" before, some of them on Less Wrong, but none of the usages seemed to stick. So I called this one (which was an early candidate for UDT before the problem was noticed) Naive Decision Theory. I can change the name if people prefer.