Nah, my argument was "Well, the crux of the issue is that the random AIs may be more likely to leave us alone than near-misses at FAI." , by the 'may', I meant, there is a notable probability that far less than 99.9999% of the balls in the jar are red, and consequently, far greater than 0.0001% probability of drawing a non-red ball.

edit: Furthermore, suppose we have a jar with 100 balls in which we know there is at least one blue ball (near-FAI space), and a huge jar with 100000 balls, about which we don't know quite a lot, and which has substantial probability of having a larger fraction of non-red balls than the former jar.

edit: also, re probability distributions, that's why i said a "range of some sort". Humans don't seem to quite do the convolutions and the like on probability distributions when thinking.