Dmytry comments on 6 Tips for Productive Arguments - Less Wrong

30 Post author: John_Maxwell_IV 18 March 2012 09:02PM

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Comment author: Dmytry 21 March 2012 10:32:05PM *  1 point [-]

Non-binary T: quite so, but can be generalized.

If I look at all my data in this example, I observe that the drug did better than placebo half the time, and worse than placebo half the time. This certainly seems to unambiguously indicate that the drug is no more effective than the placebo, on average.

but would it seem if it was 10 trials, 5 win 5 lose? It just sets some evidence that effect is small. If the drug is not some homoeopathy thats pure water, you shouldn't privilege zero effect. Exercise for the reader: calculate 95% ci for 100 placebo-controlled trials.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 22 March 2012 02:01:56AM 0 points [-]

Ah, I misunderstood your point. Sure, agreed that if there's a data set that doesn't justify any particular conclusion, quoting a subset of it that appears to justify a conclusion is also lying.

Comment author: Dmytry 22 March 2012 07:26:38AM *  0 points [-]

Well, the same should apply to arguing a point when you could as well have argued opposite with same ease.

Note, as you said:

In most real-world cases, both true statements and false statements have evidence in favor of them

and i made an example where both true and false statements got "evidence in favour of them" - 50 trials one way, 50 trials other way. Both of those evidences are subset of evidence, that appears to justify a conclusion, and is a lie.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 22 March 2012 01:49:14PM 1 point [-]

...
You are absolutely correct.
Point taken.

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