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Vladimir_Nesov comments on A Problem About Bargaining and Logical Uncertainty - Less Wrong
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You will have enough computing power later.
I mean suppose Omega gives you the option (now, when you don't have enough computing power to compute the millionth digit of pi) of replacing yourself with another AI that has a different decision theory, one that would later give control of the universe to the staples maximizer. Should you take this option? If not, what decision theory would refuse it? (Again, from your current perspective, taking the option gives you 1/2 "logical" probability of 10^20 paperclips instead of 1/2 "logical" probability of 10^10 paperclips. How do you justify refusing this?)
Edit: Nope, I changed my mind back.
You've succeeded in convincing me that I'm confused about this problem, and don't know how to make decisions in problems like this.
There're two types of players in this game: those that win the logical lottery and those that lose (here, paperclip maximizer is a winner, and staple maximizer is a loser). A winner can either cooperate or defect against its loser opponent, with cooperation giving the winner 0 and loser 10^20, and defection giving the winner 10^10 and loser 0.
If a player doesn't know whether it's a loser or a winner, coordinating cooperation with its opponent has higher expected utility than coordinating defection, with mixed strategies presenting options for bargaining (the best coordinated strategy for a given player is to defect, with opponent cooperating). Thus, we have a full-fledged Prisoner's Dilemma.
On the other hand, obtaining information about your identity (loser or winner) transforms the problem into one where you seemingly have only the choice between 0 and 10^10 (if you're a winner), or always 0 with no ability to bargain for more (if you're a loser). Thus, it looks like knowledge of a fact turns a problem into one of lower expected utility, irrespective of what the fact turns out to be, and takes away the incentives that would've made a higher win (10^20) possible. This doesn't sound right, there should be a way of making the 10^20 accessible.