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Multiheaded comments on Modest Superintelligences - Less Wrong
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Ah! You meant German victory! (or, at least, whatever the German masses would accept as victory or an honorable draw); I hadn't even thought about that; my first reaction was "So the French and the British bleed Germany dry on their own and impose an even harsher treaty", and I just went on from there. I'll have to consiider the above in detail, thanks a lot. This indeed sounds agreeable.
Yes I guess I should have stated that without US involvement a Central powers victory seemed to me likely. Things like the Battle of Caporetto, show pretty clearly that positional warfare was slowly coming to an end and that the Central powers where making surprisingly effective tactical innovations.
Germans would probably consider the gains in the East and Serbia being a puppet or occupied by Austro-Hungary to be a victory. Note that both where basically already achieved at that point if just the French and British would stop fighting! With the Russians out of the war and no American support, it seems likely the French and British would at least consider a peace treaty.
They could perhaps secure an independent Serbia in their negotiations but I can't see any further gains. Such a peace treaty would be seen as a German victory and at the very least Germany wouldn't have to become the scape goat for the war and wouldn't be forced to pay massive reparations.