jsalvatier comments on Daily Low-Dose Aspirin, Round 2 - Less Wrong

7 [deleted] 21 March 2012 07:09AM

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Comment author: gwern 16 August 2013 10:25:55PM *  8 points [-]
  1. First study fulltext: Rothwell et al 2012, "Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials" http://www.istudymedicine.com/wp-content/uploads/aspirin.pdf
  2. Second: Rothwell et al 2011, "Effect of daily aspirin on long-term risk of death due to cancer: analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials" http://www.beppegrillo.it/immagini/Aspirin%20and%20death%20from%20cancer%20\(Lancet%202010\).pdf

Now that these are available, I've read through them and specifically looked at any mentions of all-cause mortality; while most of the all-cause figures are not statistically-significant, in every case the point-value seems to be consistently lower (ie. the baby aspirin was helpful). I didn't find any all-cause numbers cited in which the aspirin group died more.

I was critical in the earlier discussion because we weren't seeing the all-cause numbers and there are excellent reasons to be wary of medical results, but personally I find all-cause mortality to be a very persuasive metric, and in the absence of any contraindications for myself or finding that the all-cause numbers have been fudged, I think I'll start low-dose/baby aspirin. My main worry is that most of these studies only deal with older people and the benefits might be negative in younger people, but it also looks like the effect is cumulative so one might want to start early. (The medical aspects are my only concern - money-wise, it might as well be free; for example, here on Amazon is 730 tablets or 2 years' worth for $8.)

Comment author: jsalvatier 21 February 2014 01:46:44AM 3 points [-]

Are you now taking low-dose aspirin?

Comment author: gwern 21 February 2014 01:55:49AM 4 points [-]

Yes.