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Dmytry comments on Scenario analysis: semi-general AIs - Less Wrong
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I just learned that von Neumann got... um, "wagered". Considering von Neumann was clearly a transhuman this establishes a lower bound on how smart you can be and still accept Pascal's wager. (Though I somewhat suspect that von Neumann's true reasons for returning to Catholicism late in life are more complicated than that.)
To expand on that, the difference between the let humans live pascal's wager, and the ordinary pascal's wager, is that letting humans live is the status quo.
Consider the 'don't eat me, my daddy is a cop' argument. It is hardly a pascal's wager. It is a rational thing to consider, especially when there's no shortage of food. It is more plausible that the status quo is product of actions of ultra powerful being, than 'you must give all money you got to me or the god will be pissed off' .