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Dmytry comments on Scenario analysis: semi-general AIs - Less Wrong
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Precisely. No point. But people been speculating a lot about how it would behave, talking themselves into certainty that it would eat us. Those people need speculative antidote. If you speculate about one thing too much, but not about anything else, you start taking speculation as weak evidence, and deluding yourself.
edit: Also, try eating random unknown chemicals if you truly believe you should not worry about unknowns. One absolutely SHOULD worry about changing the status quo.
It may be because I haven't slept in 30 hours, but I'm having a hard time interpreting your writing. I've seen you make some important insights elsewhere, and I occasionally see exactly what you're saying, but my general impression of you is that you're not very good at judging your audience and properly managing the inferential distance.
You seem to agree with me to some extent in this discussion, or at least we don't seem to have a crucial disagreement, and this topic doesn't seem very important anyway, so I'm not necessarily asking you to explain yourself if that would take a long time, but perhaps this can serve as some constructive criticism thrown at you in a dark corner of a random thread.
As a meta question, would this sort of reply do better as a PM? What are the social considerations (signaling etc) with this sort of response? I don't know where to even start in that train of thought.
English is not my first language and you haven't slept in 30 hours, that reliably adds up to mutual incomprehension.
Yes, I think it is better in pm. People who read the recent comments would prefer that, i think. The public talks are particularly difficult because e.g. I am inclined to defend the notion that my English is good enough, while you are inclined to defend the notion that non-sleep in 30 hours doesn't impair your reading comprehension substantially. I'll reply in PM.
FWIW I understood his point. I normally put comments like yours in comments, not PMs, but I haven't done a thorough analysis either.
To respond to the edit, I simply don't see the analogy.
Your wording makes it sound analogous because you could describe what I'm saying as "don't worry about unknowns" (i.e., you have no evidence for whether God exists or not, so don't worry about it), and you could also describe your reductio the same way (i.e., you have no evidence for whether some random chemical is safe, so don't worry about it), but when I try to visualize the situation I don't see the connection.
A better analogy would be being forced to take one of five different medications, and having absolutely no evidence at all for their safety, or any hope of getting such evidence, and knowing that the only possible unsafe side effects would come only far in the future (if at all). In such a situation, you would of course forget about choosing based on safety, and simply choose based on other practical considerations such as price, how easy they are to get down, etc.
One should worry about changing the status quo only if there was a useful, reliable market test in place beforehand that had anything to do with why that status quo was like it was, and especially in the case that you don't have overwhelming evidence that (1) it was a known hardware or software vulnerability that led to what became the status quo, and (2) it's obvious that remaining a part of that status quo is extremely epistemically hazardous (being religious is certainly an epistemic hazard--feel free to ask for elaboration).