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Wei_Dai comments on Scenario analysis: semi-general AIs - Less Wrong
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Gary Drescher once reminded me that von Neumann may have already suffered neurological damage from metastatic cancer at that point, so this lower bound may not be as high as you think (unless that's what you were alluding to by "true reasons").
Von Neumann had been a practicing Catholic earlier in life, so it's not that strange that he would return to Catholicism near the end. By "true reasons" I didn't mean brain damage, though thanks for bringing up that possibility. He was still transhumanly intelligent up until the end, but maybe not quite as transhumanly intelligent. But I guess I just meant that Pascal's wager surely wasn't his only consideration.