Benquo comments on SotW: Check Consequentialism - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 March 2012 01:35AM

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Comment author: Benquo 03 April 2012 03:23:30AM *  1 point [-]

On a high level, practice asking: If I do X, what does the world look like 5 minutes from now? An hour from now? A day from now? etc.

If I don't do X, what does the world look like 5 minutes from now? An hour from now? A day from now? etc.

So, let's take the PhD example. Try talking about it without using the word "because".

If I decide to finish my PhD, 5 minutes from now I feel OK. An hour from now I'm eating dinner. A day from now I'm grinding away at my dissertation. A month from now, I'm grinding away at my dissertation. A year from now, maybe I'll have finished my PhD, and I'll be on the job market. A decade from now, I'll likely have a research job in my field, or I'll be teaching, or I'll have abandoned my field and done something else.

If I don't decide to finish my PhD, 5 minutes from now I feel like a total failure, I wasted so much time. An hour from now I'm stuffing my face with junk food to deal with the stress of figuring out what to do with my life. A month from now, I've done something totally different with my life. (got a job? started a business? backpacked through Europe?) A year from now, something similar. A decade from now, who knows?

To make it vivid, ask people to talk about a choice they themselves face, and weigh the pros and cons in terms of likely future world-states. Each time you talk about a consequence, you have to mention what is going on if they chose differently, at the same distance in the future. Everyone else's job is to call them out if they go off track.