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DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong
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Has it occurred to you that if you're really that confident you could be making money on bets?
Edit: No, I'm sorry, that was unethical of me. I think you're being ludicrously overconfident and would lose any money you put up. Please don't actually make bets.
Now that just sounds like reverse psych to make him bet against you.
It does, doesn't it?
Hopefully I'm not about to learn a big lesson in humility, I would be less confident but I haven't seen or thought of any other plans that satisfy my criteria.
You should probably not even have a 90% probability for satisfaction of your criteria (the full exoneration of Hermione in the eyes of the public). I'm probably assigning less than 50% probability on that being the actual end result given how well she was framed -- any specific path to that conclusion should therefore be even less likely.
So you're 90% certain that if you are incapable of imagining something, Eliezer can't either?
Wow.
Not Elizer, just Harry.
Still wow.