gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: bogdanb 27 March 2012 06:07PM

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Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 03:29:14AM *  19 points [-]

So, new speculation: who are the sharp players in the Wizengamot who are drawing up lists on Harry?

They're not Lucius or Dumbledore, both of whom already know a great deal, and the former is too enraged to really be thinking beyond 'why did Voldemort just sacrifice all his wealth for a "friend"?'

I would be a little shocked if Umbridge was meant; she's so moronic in canon that even a MoR brain-upgrade still leaves her dim and bureaucratic, and she certainly doesn't match. And the powerful-wizard background is much more of a 'male' thing, to boot.

Mad-eye Moody could be expected to be making a list, but as far as I can tell he's not present and is remarkable enough that if he was, he would be mentioned. He's also apparently busy watching over & poisoning graves. In one chapter, Bones mentions he just retired, so he wouldn't be there in an Auror capacity. EDIT: Aftermath would seem to imply Moody was not there, because Harry didn't recognize the Moody in the Pensieve memory at all, despite him being quite striking.

Madam Bones seems too much on Dumbledore and Harry's side to be so suspicious, and not 'new' in any plot-meaningful sense. She's otherwise a decent enough candidate.

Bartemius Crouch is a candidate: as a Ministry head of Magical Law Enforcement he might be at a Wizengamot meeting (the Crouch family is highly respected and pure-blood and related to the House of Black, but the HP Wikia doesn't list them as nobles), is old, and canon seems to imply he was powerful & competent in Dark-hunting (speaking hundreds of languages) and about as suspicious as Mad-Eye, so he meets all criterion. And he's been mentioned in MoR before as alive & active, and more importantly, still part of the Phoenix network.

Does he appear in the chapter? Well, there is a nameless male wizard who takes Harry's threats very seriously, who apparently can command the Aurors:

A strange male voice spoke from somewhere far away, "Be sure that the girl is taken directly to Azkaban, and put under extra guard."

I'd say there's a good chance that that is Crouch, and he is also one of the 'certain few' in the epilogue.

Comment author: pedanterrific 28 March 2012 06:41:40AM 7 points [-]

Bartemius Crouch is a candidate: as a Ministry head of Magical Law Enforcement

Amelia Bones is Director of the DMLE, not Crouch.

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 03:28:36PM 0 points [-]

He was a Ministry head at some point; we don't know yet how closely his story follows canon in MoR.

Comment author: pedanterrific 28 March 2012 04:03:55PM 5 points [-]

Pretty closely, I think; we have

Emmeline wasn't a member of the Order of the Phoenix any more, they had disbanded after the end of the last war. And during the war, she'd known, they'd all known, that Director Crouch had quietly approved of their off-the-books battle.

Director Bones wasn't Crouch.

and

[...] while Amelia tried to weigh her own thoughts. She must not leave this prison alive... Albus Dumbledore wouldn't turn into Bartemius Crouch without a strong reason.

Comment author: Desrtopa 28 March 2012 03:37:01AM *  7 points [-]

the Crouch family is highly respected and pure-blood and related to the House of Black, but the HP Wikia doesn't list them as nobles), is old, and canon seems to imply he was powerful & competent in Dark-hunting

Not just imply, I'm pretty sure that in the fourth book Dumbledore explicitly calls Bartemius Crouch "powerfully magical."

The relevance of that may be limited if Eliezer hasn't read the book itself though.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 28 March 2012 06:24:31AM 19 points [-]

Well, he's certainly on the list now.

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 11:15:17PM 1 point [-]

D'oh!

Comment author: Vaniver 28 March 2012 04:47:40AM *  4 points [-]

Scrimgeour seems like a likely candidate for the strange male voice.

Comment author: DeevGrape 28 March 2012 04:51:46AM 19 points [-]

Or, depending on how the interrogation went, ScrimQuirMort.

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 03:19:15PM *  1 point [-]

Yes, Rufus is also good. He's not noble, but he is old, powerful, and apparently head of the Aurors, under Bones. And we just saw him on-screen for the first time ever, interrogating Quirrel - if the Ministry suspects him of being Dark (as how could they not, by this point?) it makes sense they'd interrogate him with one of their best hunters, who would be one of the people most likely to think about what they just saw.

('ScrimQuirMort' just gives me a headache.)

Comment author: faul_sname 28 March 2012 06:22:13AM 4 points [-]

Moody saw it though. The Eye of Vance sees everything.

Comment author: pedanterrific 28 March 2012 06:34:12AM 8 points [-]

I don't think "The Eye of Vance saw the full globe of the world in every direction around him, no matter where it was pointing" necessarily means he can count the grains of rice in China without turning his head.

Comment author: faul_sname 28 March 2012 07:02:53AM 9 points [-]

Not necessarily, but this does seem the sort of thing Moody would go out of his way to keep an eye (ha) on.

Comment author: Nominull 28 March 2012 03:33:09AM 1 point [-]

I think "the old wizard" was Dumbledore.

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 03:43:24AM 1 point [-]

Re-reading it more carefully, yeah. I thought he switched to Crouch and then back to Dumbledore in the pronouns, but guess not.

Comment author: ahartell 28 March 2012 03:41:04AM *  0 points [-]

Agreed.