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Alsadius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong
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Harry may be an overachiever, but he's still 11 - he's allowed to be bad at manipulating people. He's still at the "All I have to do is out-clever everyone and I can take over the world" stage. He has the tools to pull it off much of the time, but he still thinks of his opponents as pieces, not as players, which is a pretty serious hole in his worldview when it comes to things like manipulating Lucius Malfoy.
"I'm a young boy," Harry said, "and I judge myself."
Hence why I have been titling this "not so clever."
Oh, of course. He just reminds me a lot of the obnoxious little shit that I was at that age(albeit much more well-read, which is a feat), and has some of the same gaping flaws in his mental model of the world.