loserthree comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong
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I would say that the "most wise" one among Dumbledore, Quirrell, and Harry is definitely not the one whose model does not account for observed reality.
When we look at another person's action and assume a simple reason, "not their role," "lacking serious ambition," or "crazy, just crazy," we make an excuse not to spend more time modeling their motivations. That may be useful and efficient.
I think the author believes it is most wise to avoid the easy answers and continue to examine the problem.