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loserthree comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong
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Draco promised to keep Harry's secrets. Including everything that comes up in the Bayesian Conspiracy. Harry's and Draco's Patronuses are just additional items in that subset.
We are told that Occlumens can beat Veritaserum.
We are not told that promise-makers can beat Veritaserum.
Correct, but to put one under Veritaserum requires that you have sufficient information as to ask the question. And I don't believe that Veritaserum is described as forcing the volunteering of information which has not been requested of the subject.
"What do you know about Potter that he wishes to keep secret?"
Honestly, that doesn't map very well to my model of MoR!Lucius.
It would be an admission of defeat in terms of manipulation; and it would also disrupt his plans/designs to create a worthy successor in Draco.