Alsadius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: bogdanb 27 March 2012 06:07PM

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Comment author: Alsadius 30 March 2012 05:04:32PM 1 point [-]

Are you familiar with the story I was referencing?

The king had a favorite horse that he loved very much. It was a beautiful and very smart stallion, and the king had taught it all kinds of tricks. The king would ride the horse almost every day, and frequently parade it and show off its tricks to his guards.

A prisoner who was scheduled to be executed soon saw the king with his horse through his cell window and decided to send the king a message. The message said, "Your Royal Highness, if you will spare my life, and let me spend an hour each day with your favorite horse for a year, I will teach your horse to sing."

The king was amused by the offer and granted the request. So, each day the prisoner would be taken from his cell to the horse's paddock, and he would sing to the horse "La-la-la-la" and would feed the horse sugar and carrots and oats, and the horse would neigh. And, all the guards would laugh at him for being so foolish.

One day, one of the guards, who had become somewhat friendly with the prisoner, asked him, "Why do you do such a foolish thing every day singing to the horse, and letting everyone laugh at you? You know you can't teach a horse to sing. The year will pass, the horse will not sing, and the king will execute you."

The prisoner replied, "A year is a long time. Anything can happen. In a year the king may die. Or I may die. Or the horse may die. And if that fails, who knows? The horse may learn to sing. "

Delaying the inevitable is actually a perfectly rational thing to do.

Comment author: wedrifid 30 March 2012 06:38:35PM 1 point [-]

Are you familiar with the story I was referencing?

I've heard it, it's cute and has a sometimes applicable moral. But my response is to the universal generalization across all intelligent creatures in all circumstances. Are you familiar with the "Mind Projection Fallacy" I linked to?

Comment author: Alsadius 30 March 2012 09:33:13PM 3 points [-]

I haven't heard the phrase, but it's a pretty obvious concept to anyone who's read sci-fi. My point is that delaying the inevitable is an actual strategy, and one that has good reason to exist, whatever the type of intelligence. Unless you're literally prescient, playing for higher variance in a bad situation makes good sense.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 March 2012 10:40:27AM 0 points [-]

The goalposts seem to have moved irrecoverably.

Comment author: Alsadius 31 March 2012 05:46:57PM 0 points [-]

The Dementor can try to undercut Harry now, and die for it, or it can play for time, hope he stumbles on another obstacle, and perhaps survive. The latter seems saner to me, assuming that Dementors are not overflowing with empathy for their bretheren(or that they're simply lacking in plotting ability). Which part of this is goalpost-moving?

Comment author: wedrifid 01 April 2012 02:13:33PM 1 point [-]

Which part of this is goalpost-moving?

Exception to general claims countered by more proof for specific claims (which are trivial and not denied.)

For instance I still maintain this:

You don't generally accomplish that by antagonizing the one guy who can kill you.

Unless they already plan to kill you, in which case antagonizing them can potentially reduce their threat.

Yet clearly would not apply it in the specific case where a dementor is guarunteed to fail in the short term. ie. When their threat reamains at 100% and has not been reduced.

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