orthonormal comments on Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part III - Less Wrong
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Incidentally, my preferred version of Newcomb is that if the Predictor decides that your chance of one-boxing is p, it puts (one million times p) dollars in the big box. Presumably, you know that the Predictor is both extremely well-calibrated and shockingly accurate (it usually winds up with p near 0 or near 1).