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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Should logical probabilities be updateless too? - Less Wrong
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If I'm Omega, and I decide to check whether the 10^10 th digit of pi is 0, 2 or 5, and reward you if it is... how would you feel about that? I chose those numbers because we have ten fingers, and I chose reward because "e" is the 5th letter in the alphabet (I went through the letters of "reward" and "punish" until I found one that was the 10th (J), 5th (E) or 2nd (B) letter).
Or a second variant: I implement the logical-coin CM that can be described in python in the most compact way.
If it's true that you chose the numbers because we have ten fingers (and because of nothing else), and I can verify that, then I feel I should behave as if the event is random with probability 0.3, even if it was the 10-th digit of pi, not 10^10-th.
Yep - welcome to logical uncertainty!
I never had anything against logical uncertainty :)
The point, though, is that this setup - where I can verify Omega's honest attempt at randomness - does not produce the paradoxes. In particular, it does not allow someone to pump money out of me. And so it seems to me that I can and should "keep paying up in Counterfactual Mugging even when the logical coinflip looks as obvious as 2+2=4."