GuySrinivasan comments on Minicamps on Rationality and Awesomeness: May 11-13, June 22-24, and July 21-28 - Less Wrong
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Hm, super-useful was a bad term. The actual impressions I got were "obviously coherent and not bs, and with high enough mean+variance that the value of investigation is very high". Not necessarily the value of any one specific person investigating, but the value of it being investigated.
So I went a bit further than your
to believe the top of the curve was a) grossly useful and b) of non-negligible likelihood.