= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Antisuji comments on A (very) tentative refutation of Pascal's mugging - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (34)
I don't think this is actually true. If MileyCyrus successfully predicted the exact sequence of coinflips HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH, wouldn't you be more surprised than if it were HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH?
Of course. When I said "we're more surprised" I was referring to the typical person who hasn't read this discussion thread. In the absence of the above prediction, I would be far more surprised to see HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH than HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH. Once the prediction is made, I become extremely surprised if either sequence appears, but somewhat more surprised by HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH.
Oh, I see. In the case of the typical person, the answer is even easier: Lack of understanding of the conjunction rule of probability. HTHTTHTHTTTHHTH feels more representative of a random series of coin flips, so it is intuitively judged as more probable than HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.