Dmytry comments on A (very) tentative refutation of Pascal's mugging - Less Wrong
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Comments (34)
Hypothesis: Yea. The problem is that apart from the trivial cases having to do with clearly made up nonsense, it is very difficult to track how much the hypothesis got 'cherrypicked', as the process of choosing a hypothesis, when not entirely insane, should increase probability of it being true over the hypotheses that this process did not pick up.
Anthropic reasoning: I agree its kind of flimsy. On second thought I don't like this argument too much.