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Dmytry comments on A (very) tentative refutation of Pascal's mugging - Less Wrong
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"So for every extra unit of disutility predicted the probability penalty due to not knowing enough about the current state of the universe becomes greater."
Sure, but the probability shrinks slower than the disutility rises. A scenario in which 1000 times 3^^3 people are tortured has more probability that the probability that 3^^3 people are tortured, divided by 1000. Or more formally:
[P(Mugger tortures 1000*3^^3 people)] > [P(Mugger tortures 3^^3 people)]/1000
Read about Solomonoff Induction to find out why this is true.
How's about that: the probabilities of torture of exact number of beings, got to sum to 1 or less?