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khafra comments on Examine your assumptions - Less Wrong
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You're right, of course: I'd heard the story without working out the solution myself, and my mind leapt to the "obvious" solution.
s/inverse error/identical error? I'm having trouble imagining the inverse error, unless it's leaning too hard on boolean, non-probabilistic anthropic reasoning and ignoring real damage distributions.
I meant the error that was (sloppily phrased) the inverse of "look at the survivors and realize that the damage they've received isn't necessarily representative of the damage the non-survivors received". So, yes, the identical error to the one we've been discussing all along.