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David_Gerard comments on Open Thread, April 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong
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You guys know your philosophy. What is the proper name of this fallacy?
It's a common sophistry to conflate an utterly negligible probability with a non-negligible one. The argument goes:
Step 3 is the tricky one. Humans are, in general, really bad at feeling the difference between epsilon uncertainty and sufficient uncertainty to be worth taking notice of - they can't tell a nonzero chance from one that's worth paying attention to ever.
I could make up a neologism for it, but this thing must have been around approximately forever. What is its proper name, if any? Who was the first person to note it as fallacious? Any history of it would be most welcomed.
Well, this instance is certainly a False Dichotomy. That is, the argument assumes that everything is either certain or non-negligibly certain. It also sort of looks like an instance of what is sometimes called an Appeal to Possibility or an Appeal to Probability. (1. This argument in uncertain. 2. If an argument is uncertain, it is possible that the uncertainty is non-negligible. 3. Therefore, it is possible that this argument's uncertainty is non-negligible. 4. Therefore, this argument's uncertainty is non-negligible.)
On Lesswrong, all of this is generally called the Fallacy of Gray.
Edit: Oh, yeah. This is totally the Continuum Fallacy
Ah, a specific variant of the Continuum Fallacy, applied to probability. Yep.
I'd still be somewhat surprised if it didn't have its own name yet. But if it doesn't, I suppose we can create a good neologism. What name should it have as a particular variant? (The way argumentum ad Hitlerum or argumentum ad cellarium are argumentum ad hominem variants.) Does anything snappy spring to mind?
What's wrong with "fallacy of gray"?
Nothing at all, I'm just aware enough of the variant to want a name for it.