Rationality Quotes April 2012

Oscar_Cunningham

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Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself
Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

The existence of factors which could adjust the score either up or down does not indicate which factors dominate. In this case, you have no information which suggests that 39700 is either above or below the median, and therefore these two cases must be assigned equal probability - canceling out any "regression to the mean" effects you could have predicted. Similar arguments apply to other effects which change the score.

In this case, you have no information which suggests that 39700 is either above or below the median, and therefore these two cases must be assigned equal probability

Not quite, you have some background information about the range of scores video games usually employ.

4maia14y

So you estimate "regression to the mean" effects as zero, and base your estimate on any other effects you know about and how strong you think they are. That makes sense. Thanks for the correction!