Rationality Quotes April 2012

Oscar_Cunningham

Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself
Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself
Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Can you give an example of evidence becoming worthless? (I can't think of any.)

Suppose A gives me information about B, and B gives me information about C; they're dependent. (Remember, probabilistic dependence is always mutual.) A gives me information about C (through B) only if I don't know B. If I know B, then A is conditionally independent of C, and so learning A tells me nothing about C.

8alex_zag_al14y

You have a theory that a certain kind of building is highly prone to fire. You see a news report that mentions that a building of that kind has burnt down on Main Street. The news report supports your theory - unless you were a witness to the fire the previous night.

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Rationality Quotes April 2012

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Rationality Quotes April 2012

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