David_Gerard comments on What are you working on? April 2012 - Less Wrong

1 Post author: David_Gerard 01 April 2012 06:40PM

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Comment author: David_Gerard 02 April 2012 12:25:09PM *  0 points [-]

The "ten times" is from the referenced NYT article. It could do with tracking to the source, yes.

edit: This appears to be the original paper, and it's paywalled. But I'll keep looking for a copy.

Comment author: JenniferRM 02 April 2012 06:41:03PM *  2 points [-]

If you got this from a popularization you may have run into a miscommunication about odds ratios versus relative rates? This is one of those known problems that will be around for a long time because its a subtle point and being wrong on the subtle point helps people score "OMG that's amazing!" points that are rhetorically effective (and get higher click-through when put in a headline) but which are not very accurate.

I have good library access. Send me a PM with your email and I'll email you the PDF if you want to check the original source for precise numbers :-)

Comment author: David_Gerard 02 April 2012 10:58:19PM *  -1 points [-]

Reading that paper, I feel like a dog being shown a card trick ... but gjm hypothesises a reporter being told "almost 10% more" (upper bound of likely selection coefficient ~0.97 edit: ~0.097) and hearing "almost ten times more". This is alarmingly plausible.

Comment author: gjm 03 April 2012 12:39:02AM 1 point [-]

Correction: 0.097, not 0.97.