Douglas_Reay comments on Werewolf, Cambridge UK Less Wrong Meetup April 1st 2012 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Clarity1992 02 April 2012 11:46AM

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Comment author: Douglas_Reay 02 April 2012 12:47:47PM 1 point [-]

One reason I suggested Werewolf/Mafia was the write up of having at go at Paranoid Debating by the London Meetup. I thought, if we wanted to have a go at Paranoid Debating at a future meeting, it would be good for people to have tried Werewolf first, to get an idea of the general tactics of spotting defectors, before mixing in the Aumann Game.

It would be interesting, some time, to do another game of Werewolf, where people kept a private systematic record of the probabilities they assign each day, so at the end of the game they can reverse calculate via Baysian reasoning, what their actual estimates of evidence presented during each day were, that the evidence updated their prior estimates by the amount it did.