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James_Miller comments on Generic Modafinil sales begin? - Less Wrong
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The redditor contacted me for advice before officially announcing it and in turn sent me 50 or so Modalert; the packaging was right, and it seemed to work for me. She seems legit... for now.
What probability of the drugs being counterfeit would you be willing to accept? Also, the profit maximizing strategy of the seller might be to initially sell 100% genuine drugs and then slowly lower this percentage.
What do you mean?
Let p = the probability of the drugs being counterfeit. For what values of p would you be willing to buy the drug?
Her price isn't that great, even with the Reddit discount, so I'd say something like p>0.2 would be enough to push me to buy from the Silk Road or one of the other online pharmacies instead.
I had never heard of Silk Road. Now I understand the appeal of Bitcoins.